Intel Earnings Analysis

• stevenplace
• July 20th, 2011

One of the lagging sectors during the most recent market rally have been the semiconductors. Generally if you want to be bullish on the market, you want to see participation out of this area as it signals a robust economy and an appetite for risk.

Intel reports after the close today and is in a very interesting spot. The stock has been a bellwether of the sector and the market in the past, and several breakaway moves higher in equities have been a result of earnings from the company.

We can get a feel for what the market is expecting for $INTC earnings by observing the current premium in the weekly options. The July 23 straddle is currently offered at 0.88, which means the market is pricing in a 3.6% move into earnings. The average 1-day move after earnings has been 3.27%, so the market seems to be “in line” with past results.

It is hard to discern if there’s any true directional “feel” in $INTC options due to the fact that the options are very high volume with algorithmic traders raking in the liquidity rebates.

The Jul weekly 23 calls are seeing larege volume relative to its open interest, with nearly 16,000 contracts traded against 11,000 open interest. Also, the Jul weekly 22 puts are seeing high volume as well with a little over 10,000 contracts traded against 6,600 open interest.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

blog comments powered by Disqus